NWS Frost Advisory (Ashe County)

Current Conditions
Warrensville

Temp: 51.9°F

Forecast Last Updated at Wednesday, October 23, 2019 at 6:44AM

Ideal October Days

It's smooth sailing for a few days as high pressure drifts overhead tonight and off the coast Thursday. Frost is a good bet come tomorrow morning. Temperatures bounce back a little Thursday and Friday thanks to a milder southerly flow. The picture this weekend is a murky one and details surrounding the arrival of rain remain unclear today. If we're lucky Saturday is mainly dry, but we will not put all our eggs in that basket for now. Sunday is decisively wet.

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Mostly Cloudy, Low 70s
Scattered Showers
SE Wind 5-10 mph

Wednesday Hi: 58 Lo: 31 Sunshine; Cool but nice; NW wind 5-15 mph & breezy, becoming light Wed. night

Thursday Hi: 61 Lo: 37 Generally clear; Pleasant fall weather; Light SE wind

Friday Hi: 61 Lo: 46 Increasing PM clouds; Continued seasonably pleasant; Light SW wind

Saturday Hi: 60 Lo: 44 Generally cloudy; Light rain showers possible

Sunday Hi: 60 Lo: 45 Cloudy; Occasional light rain

Further Out

Monday - Mostly cloudy; Light showers around; High in the mid 60s; Low in the mid 40s
Tuesday - Partly cloudy; Pleasant; High in the mid 60s; Low near 40 degrees

Forecast Discussion

Generally clear skies rule the roost now through Friday morning courtesy of high pressure migrating over the Southeast. Temperatures are about what you'd expect for late October. There will be frost on the pumpkins tomorrow morning.

It goes down hill after Friday and so does our forecast confidence. Low pressure ejects out of South Texas Friday northeastwards to the Great Lakes Sunday bringing a cold front across the region Sunday. Clouds increase Friday night and rain develops at some point Saturday. The question- is that Saturday night or earlier in the day? A middle of the road consensus points to light rain here by Saturday afternoon so that's where we'll draw the line as of this writing. Either way, rain continues Sunday.

The front stalls in the eastern part of the state Monday so residual light showers remain in play Monday. I have the front getting far enough away for a dry Tuesday. Both days are fairly mild as there isn't an infusion of colder air behind the front. Hopefully the details are resolved by tomorrow and we can speak with confidence regarding Saturday.

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