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NWS Hurricane Local Statement (Ashe County)

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NWS Hurricane Local Statement (Ashe County)

NWS Tropical Storm Warning (Ashe County)

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Phillips Gap , NC

Forecast Last Updated at Thursday, October 29, 2020 at 6:58AM

Morning Mess

Tropical Storm Zeta moves from North Georgia northeastward through East TN this morning. Expect wind gusting to 50 mph (a bit stronger at higher elevations) and heavy rain this morning. The best news I have is that Zeta has legs--it will move quickly NE and be off the New Jersey coast this evening. Rain tapers to light showers this afternoon, and we may get a peek at the sun later today.
A cold front moves through from the northwest in the wake of Zeta. Wind increases again tonight and colder air arrives. Showers continue through tonight. Total rain for this event will generally be between 2"-3" with 4" totals near the Blue Ridge.
Friday might have a light shower to start the day, but colder temperatures and windy conditions will be what you notice with clearing skies. Saturday will be chilly but quiet. The daytime Sunday will be slightly warmer but a front arriving late brings the potential of a passing shower Sunday afternoon with much colder air coming Sunday night.

Ray Russell's 2020-2021 Winter Fearless Forecast is now available. The bottom line for the forecast is: 1) less than average snow and 2) slightly warmer than average temperatures. We will have a few significant snow events but prolonged cold periods will be difficult to sustain. Get all the details here. The Fearless Forecast is sponsored by Peak Insurance Group.

The 2021 Blue Ridge Calendar is in stores now.  Visit RaysMarketPlace.com for a complete listing of retailers or purchase online.  A portion of the proceeds goes to support the important work of the Blue Ridge Conservancy.

Thursday

Hi: 73 Lo: 46

Generally cloudy; Heavy rain this morning; Lighter showers this afternoon and tonight; South wind 15-25 mph, gusts to 50 mph in the AM (stronger up top); Decreasing afternoon & evening wind, then becoming NW 10-20 mph with gusts to 45 mph later tonight
Friday

Hi: 50 Lo: 35

Maybe an early light shower, then decreasing clouds; NW wind 10-20 mph with early gusts to 45 mph, diminishing in the afternoon and evening
Saturday

Hi: 51 Lo: 42

Mostly sunny; Cool for Halloween; SE wind 5-10 mph
Sunday

Hi: 56 Lo: 32

Variably cloudy; Maybe a light passing afternoon shower; Colder Sunday night; Becoming windy
Monday

Hi: 42 Lo: 31

Few clouds; Coldest day since early March; Windy

Further Out

Tuesday - Mostly sunny and milder; High in the mid 50s; Low in the upper 30s
Wednesday - Mostly clear; Warmer; High in the lower 60s; Low in the lower 40s

Forecast Discussion

Zeta made landfall in Louisiana Wednesday evening as a Category 2 hurricane. It is a tropical storm in North Georgia early this morning and will move northeast through East Tennessee. By this evening, it will be off the New Jersey coast.

Expect heavy rain with gusty winds this morning. Rain tapers off quickly this afternoon. We may even get a brief look at the sun late today. Winds will diminish somewhat this afternoon.

A cold front moves through this evening, and a secondary surface low develops in NC. Expect showers overnight with a NW wind developing as colder temperatures arrive. A shower may linger into early Friday. Friday will be considerably colder with gusty morning winds. Skies clear and winds diminish in the afternoon and evening.

Saturday is quieter and cool with lots of sun as high pressure covers North Carolina.

The next front from the NW arrives late Sunday. Temperature will be briefly milder and a passing shower is possible Sunday afternoon. Then much colder air arrives Sunday night on gusty NW winds.

Monday has mostly clear skies and windy conditions during the daytime. It is the coldest day we've seen since early March. High pressure moves across the Southeast early next week with lots of sun and gradually milder weather.

Zeta is a record-tying 27th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic tropical season. 2005 is the only year on record with 27 named storms. We still have a month left in the hurricane season and will certainly break that record for the number of named storms. It should be noted however, that 2005 will remain as the overall leader in Atlantic tropical activity because it produced the memorable super-storms Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. The strongest season in terms of total tropical energy in the Atlantic was 1933. As a whole the 2020 storms have not been as strong.

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