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NWS Winter Storm Warning (Ashe County)

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Jefferson , NC

Forecast Last Updated at Thursday, October 30, 2014 at 7:26PM

Wild Weekend

High pressure centered in the Ohio Valley provided cool but quiet weather today. Valley frost is possible again tonight. Clouds increase Friday with rain showers developing late-day and in the evening. Rain showers change to snow showers Friday night. Snow showers continue Saturday and Saturday evening tapering to flurries overnight. Expect a windy Saturday as well. Snow totals for the event (Friday night through Saturday night)? We're thinking 1"-3" for most of the region, with 3"-6" at higher elevations and along the western upslope of the Appalachians.

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Thursday

Hi: 55 Lo: 35

Partly cloudy tonight; Cool; Light wind
Friday

Hi: 52 Lo: 30

Becoming cloudy; Rain showers late-day & evening, changing to snow showers overnight; Turning much colder Fri. night; Light wind becoming NW 5-15 mph Fri. night
Saturday

Hi: 35 Lo: 27

Generally cloudy; Snow showers tapering to flurries at night; NW wind 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph
Sunday

Hi: 42 Lo: 29

Clearing skies; Chilly but not as cold
Monday

Hi: 55 Lo: 37

Sunny; Two notches milder

Further Out

Tuesday - Few clouds; Another step warmer; High near 60 degrees; Low in the lower 40s
Wednesday - Becoming cloudy; Showers possible Wed. night; High in the upper 50s; Low in the upper 40s

Forecast Discussion

High pressure in the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley has control of our weather through early Friday. Valley frost is possible tonight--the last time we'll mention because growing season will definitely end this weekend.

An upper-level low located Thursday morning in Manitoba will dive through the Western Great Lakes on its way to the Southern Appalachians and North Carolina by Saturday. Very cold air (very cold by October standards) will wrap into the system Friday night and Saturday. After the upper-level low moves through, a strong surface low will develop off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The results here will be:
1. Rain showers developing late Friday.
2. Rain showers changing to snow showers Friday night.
3. Snow showers Saturday and Saturday evening tapering to flurries Saturday night.
It's a little early for accumulation specifics, made more difficult in having to balance warm ground, the earliness of the "snow season", and how potent the NNW flow snow showers will be off Lake Erie. But we're thinking 1"-3" for most of our region, with 3"-6" at higher elevations and along western escarpment. Those numbers are for total snow accumulation Friday night through Saturday night. Saturday will be very windy as well.

High pressure takes over early next week. Sunday will be unseasonably chilly (but not as cold as Saturday) with clearing skies. Monday looks clear and warmer (still slightly below seasonal averages). We're back to "average" Tuesday (Election Day) under mostly clear skies.

The next front arrives Wednesday night. Wednesday has more clouds with a few showers possible Wednesday night.

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