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Jefferson , NC

Forecast Last Updated at Saturday, May 30, 2015 at 7:36AM

Nice Saturday

Drier air has arrived in the Southern Appalachians. After two rather noisy afternoons, Saturday afternoon will be quieter (only the slight chance of a shower or thundershower). Sunday and Monday will be very different. Sunday begins with sun and pleasant weather; however, storms develop Sunday afternoon. Then, showers and thunderstorms remain the dominate theme through Monday evening as a front reaches us from the west/north.

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Saturday

Hi: 76 Lo: 59

Partly cloudy after early fog; A stray afternoon shower or t-shower possible; South wind 5-15 mph
Sunday

Hi: 76 Lo: 59

Partly to mostly cloudy; Scattered afternoon & nighttime showers & storms; South wind 5-15 mph (gusty in storms)
Monday

Hi: 71 Lo: 56

Generally cloudy; Showers & storms through evening; Light SW wind, becoming NW at night
Tuesday

Hi: 73 Lo: 55

Mostly cloudy; Isolated showers (maybe a t-shower)
Wednesday

Hi: 70 Lo: 56

Partly to mostly cloudy; Isolated afternoon showers (maybe a t-shower)

Further Out

Thursday - Partly cloudy; An isolated shower possible; High in the lower 70s; Low in the mid 50s
Friday - Partly cloudy; Cannot rule out a shower; Watching the tropical Atlantic; High in the mid 70s; Low in the upper 50s

Forecast Discussion

The forecast is pretty straightforward through Monday; however, more uncertainty than usual creeps in for Tuesday through Friday.

Today has only subtle from the previous two days; however, that's the nature of summer weather--subtle differences matter. Some drier air and the lack of triggering mechanisms give us a much drier day compared to the last two. Enjoy a warm, mostly dry day. We have just the slight chance of an afternoon shower or thundershower.

A front approaches from the west Sunday. After a sunny Sunday morning, clouds develop in the afternoon with showers and storms. With the front just to our west/north Monday, showers and thunderstorms will dominate our weather Sunday night through Monday evening.

The challenge for several days has been where the front stalls in the Southeast. Today, it appears the front will move just a little farther east/south sooner allowing drier air into our region. We keep isolated showers (maybe a thundershower) each afternoon (Tuesday through Thursday), but plenty of dry hours and temperatures a notch less warm than today and Sunday. I'm not totally convinced of this scenario, but at this point, it appears to be the most likely solution.

Uncertainty continues into Friday but from another source. A tropical wave will be around the Southeast Coast late next week. We think this will remain more of a coastal issue; however, we have to be alert for something impacting more of the Southeast including us. Stay tuned on this point.

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