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NWS Special Weather Statement (Ashe County)

NWS Winter Storm Warning (Ashe County)

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Jefferson , NC

Forecast Last Updated at Sunday, February 14, 2016 at 3:41PM

Kitchen Sink Storm

Except for "warm", you'll get whatever kind of weather you like by Tuesday night. Flurries flew for much of Sunday afternoon. More significant snow develops late this afternoon and this evening. "Plowable" accumulations are expected overnight. Precipitation transitions from snow to a wintry mix Monday morning. We'll transition from sleet to freezing rain and eventually to rain Monday from south to north. The last spots to changeover to rain will be areas right along the Blue Ridge in Watauga, Ashe, and Alleghany Counties Monday night. Rain ends early Tuesday morning as drizzle (maybe snizzle on mountaintops). Our slightly edited Snow/Ice Forecast Accumulation Map gives the details for snow and ice through Monday evening. A clipper-low will race in from the NW Tuesday night with a round of snow showers ending early Wednesday.

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Sunday

Hi: 18 Lo: 14

Cloudy; Very cold; Snow developing; SE wind 5-15 mph (gusty up top Sun. night)
Monday

Hi: 33 Lo: 31

Cloudy; Snow changing to a wintry mix and then to rain; Gradually rising temperatures Mon. night; SE wind 5-15 mph (but South 20-30 mph & gusty at highest elevations)
Tuesday

Hi: 43 Lo: 30

Lots of clouds; Maybe some early drizzle (or mtntop snizzle); Snow showers again Tue. night; NW wind 10-20 mph, gusty
Wednesday

Hi: 40 Lo: 25

Lots of clouds; Flurries possible early AM, and again Wed. night
Thursday

Hi: 45 Lo: 27

Scattered clouds; Cool

Further Out

Friday - Milder temperatures; Increasing PM clouds; High in the mid 50s; Low in the upper 30s
Saturday - Mostly cloudy; Mild temperatures; Cannot rule out a stray light shower; High in the mid 50s; Low in the lower 40s

Forecast Discussion

Arctic high pressure is in New England sliding east into the North Atlantic. Low pressure is building in Texas today, ready to move across Northern Alabama/Georgia and through the Carolinas (Monday) and to the New England Coast Tuesday. This one will throw the kitchen sink at us in terms of precipitation types.

Sunday is cloudy and cold with a southeast wind developing as a cold wedge builds along the east side of the Appalachians. Moisture overrides that cold wedge producing snow. We'll probably have 3"-6" of snow by sunrise Monday. Snow continues Monday morning, but a transition to sleet and freezing rain occurs from south to north Monday. By late Monday, much of NW NC will be just a cold rain; however, areas right along the Blue Ridge in NW NC will hold freezing rain into Monday evening. Monday night, all the the region will transition to rain, and rain will be heavy at times. Rain ends as drizzle (or mountaintop snizzle) early Tuesday morning.

But wait, that's not all. A clipper-low zips southeast Tuesday into Tennessee. It will bring a round of snow showers Tuesday night (possibly starting as rain at lowest elevations).

Clouds and cool temperatures linger Wednesday. Low pressure moving across the Great Lakes may produce a few flurries Wednesday night.

Thursday through Saturday brings gradually milder temperatures as a warmer ridge builds in the Southeast. A front will limp into our region Saturday with more clouds and the slight chance of a light shower.

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